26 Jun 2026
The starting number
Zepto files its DRHP targeting a ₹9,500 Cr IPO, roughly a $7 Bn headline valuation.
Read the full signal →26 Jul 2026
The headline number
PhonePe's FY26 net loss headline comes in at ₹2,792 Cr, widening 62% ahead of its own IPO.
Read the full signal →27 Jul 2026
The audited number
PhonePe's real FY26 loss is roughly ₹364 Cr once one-time ESOP and goodwill charges are stripped out, a 7.6x difference depending on which number you read. Its IPO is paused the same day.
Read the full signal →31 Jul 2026
Zepto's number effectively hits zero for now
Zepto pulls its IPO entirely rather than price at a discount to its own reduced target.
Read the full signal →6 Aug 2026
A third company, a milder version of the same correction
Shiprocket trims its IPO size 31% in the RHP to ₹1,617 Cr from an earlier ₹2,342 Cr, ahead of an August 12 listing.
Read the full signal →21 Aug 2026
A fourth company, the same headline-vs-real gap
Zetwerk's revenue jumps 40% to ₹15,913 Cr, but its adjusted EBITDA gain is dwarfed by a FY26 loss that widens 4.3x to ₹1,606 Cr, the same pattern of a growth headline obscuring a widening real number, this time ahead of an IPO price expected at ₹24,000-28,000 Cr.
Read the full signal →24 Aug 2026
The milder correction resolves, and validates the pattern
Shiprocket lists at a 35% premium on its NSE debut, but on a consolidated adjusted EBITDA of just ₹17 Cr against ₹2,024 Cr of revenue, the market pricing its optionality rather than the current profitability its trimmed IPO size hinted at three weeks earlier.
Read the full signal →31 Aug 2026
A fifth company, the anchor book vs. the real vote
Purple Style Labs' IPO closes Day 1 at just 8% subscription, with retail covering only 39% of its quota, despite a healthy ₹306 Cr anchor round days earlier, the same gap between headline confidence and real demand every company in this thread has hit.
Read the full signal →2 Sep 2026
The anchor book gap starts to close, but only on retail demand
Purple Style Labs' IPO recovers to 24% subscribed on Day 2, a 3x jump driven almost entirely by retail catching up to 93% of its quota, while institutional bidding remains the number to watch before the issue closes.
Read the full signal →3 Sep 2026
The final book closes on a late institutional surge, not broad demand
Purple Style Labs' IPO closes at 1.29X overall, needing retail and QIBs to nearly double down on the final day just to clear 1X, while non-institutional investors never cleared their quota, the same headline-vs-composition gap every company in this thread has hit.
Read the full signal →4 Sep 2026
A sixth company, the gap moves from IPO pricing into the audited numbers themselves
RentoMojo's FY26 profit headline reads 142% YoY growth to ₹104.2 Cr, but strip out a one-time ₹36.6 Cr tax credit and the real growth is closer to 55-60%, filed the same week its RHP opens book-building at a ₹4,200 Cr valuation.
Read the full signal →7 Sep 2026
A seventh company, and the closest thing to a full-circle resolution
Purple Style Labs' 1.29X overall subscription needed a late institutional rescue to clear, and it lists at a 7% discount to issue price days later, the cleanest confirmation yet that headline subscription numbers keep overstating real demand.
Read the full signal →8 Sep 2026
An eighth company proves the other side of the pattern: conservative pricing pays off in the numbers that follow
Shiprocket priced its IPO conservatively and listed at a 35% premium in August, and its first quarterly results as a public company back that up with real operating improvement, adjusted EBITDA moved from ₹1 Cr to ₹8.9 Cr in a year, not just a favourable listing-day pop.
Read the full signal →9 Sep 2026
Back to RentoMojo, where this thread's first entry started, and the first real answer on its pricing
RentoMojo's anchor investors paid ₹404 a share, the very top of its ₹384-404 price band, as its IPO opened for subscription, the first real signal on whether the pricing this thread flagged in September would hold or get trimmed the way Shiprocket's did in August. For the anchor tranche, it held at the ceiling.
Read the full signal →10 Sep 2026
Day 1 closes at 1.97X, but the anchor strength doesn't carry evenly across every investor category
RentoMojo's Day 1 book closed subscribed 1.97X overall, NII at 3.87X, retail at 2.05X, employees at 2.09X, but qualified institutional buyers at just 0.41X, the one category not yet clearing 1X. The anchor round paying top-of-band didn't automatically translate into strong institutional demand once public bidding opened.
Read the full signal →